Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and Technically Specified Natural Rubber 20 Export: The Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation

نویسندگان

چکیده

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes rainfall anomalies, which may disrupt Indonesia’s natural rubber production by interfering with the trees’ growth and affecting export volume. This study analyzed effect of ENSO dynamics on monthly productivity Technically Specified Natural Rubber (TSNR) 20 export. Monthly data from January 2006 to December 2019 were collected Statistics Indonesia, International Trade Centre (ITC), World Bank, Bank National Ocean Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Descriptive statistics unveiled that strong La Nina increased average 3.37% 9.68%, while tended decrease 1.30% 9.27%. Moreover, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) demonstrated negative export, both in short long term.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2407-814X', '2527-9238']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/agraris.v8i2.14320